S&P 500 dips into bear market territory while crypto markets continue to suffer; plus our weekly BTC and ETH analysis
- S&P 500 Officially Drops Into Bear Market Territory
- Bitcoin/USD – Bitcoin Closes Record Breaking 8th Consecutive Week Red
S&P 500 Officially Drops Into Bear Market Territory
Last Friday afternoon on May 20th, the S&P 500 crossed the bear market threshold after it witnessed a 20 percent decline from its January 3rd peak. The S&P 500 has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, marking this time period as the worst decline since the dot com bubble burst 20 years ago. Contributors to the price decline included the constant worry of rising inflation, an on-going war in Ukraine, the hawkish FOMC, and increasing concerns over the potential for a recession. Reports from retailers such as Walmart and Target also surfaced this week indicating rising costs are now hitting corporate America. For the first time in many years, Walmart, Target, and Kohls said its quarterly profits had fallen. A close of more than 20% below the all-time closing high of January 3rd would confirm the index was in a bear market for the first time since the 2020 crash which was brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic although that crash was recovered in just 33 days before reaching back to the level where it originally was.
Bitcoin/USD – Bitcoin Closes Record Breaking 8th Consecutive Week Red
BTC Daily Chart
BTC Weekly Chart
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at about $29.2k after printing yet again another red candle on the weekly timeframe. Bitcoin is still consolidating within a small range with the range high at $30.6k and the range low at $28.6k as investors are still indecisive on the next move. In my personal opinion I believe that the fate of Bitcoin’s short term price action will be determined by the next move in the traditional markets. What bulls want to see for some short term relief is a clean reclaim of the $30k-$32k level
Bitcoin Bull Scenario
Bitcoin reclaims the $30k – $32k level on a weekly closing basis and a move up to $34k is in the cards.
Bitcoin Bear Scenario
Bitcoin does not reclaim $30k soon and I would expect more downside.
ETH Daily Chart
ETH Weekly Chart
At the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at 1.9k and has been consolidating in a similar fashion to Bitcoin. Although Ethereum’s price action has been influenced by the price action of Bitcoin and has followed a similar path, Ethereum still seems more Bullish than Bitcoin as it has still respected its range low and maintained price above the level. If Bitcoin can find a bottom and begin to work its way up I would expect for Ethereum to give a nice push up as well.
Ethereum Bull Scenario
BTC finds relief while ETH maintains above $2k and pushes back to the $2.3k level.
Ethereum Bear Scenario
ETH does not maintain $2k and as stated in last week’s article, I would expect for the $1.4k level to hold up as support.